Influence Motivation Purpose Action Community Trust

Saturday, September 10, 2011

EIB Update: Egypt and Middle East Tensions 9.10.2011

It seems the Israeli embassy was invaded and ransacked by a mob of anti-Israeli's. This should not be surprising. More information soon to come. - Israel on Alert... - Embassy staff leave Egypt... - Israel Embassy overrun...

Israel is being played into isolationist mode, on all sides, including the United States and Barack Obama. The continued violence, due to deaths of several Egyptian border patrol guards at Gaza, will put Israel in a hands-off position in the short term events there. This, with the threat of airstrikes to prevent a nuclear Iran, will make it seem to United Nations member States, that there just might be a need for a separate Palestinian State. Israel will oppose it, harshly, but who or what would stop the Palestinian State tsunami from happening, if the United States and President Obama say: 'We refuse to support you, Israel. There's too much hate coming from Tel Aviv. Stop this madness Prime Minister Netanyahu! Stop this madness Israel!' The likelihood of our own embassies coming under attack is increased, as is those of our allies.


With the upcoming Palestinian vote, resignation of the current government in Egypt, the next few months will be interesting. As the the Arab Spring has gone from Summer and is entering into Fall, let's take a quick look at a few scenarios:

Syria, sensing Israeli weakness in line withe the new Palestinian State, invades. After bumbling operations against its own protesters and Israel, the government collapses. Syria is thrown into a brief, yet bloody civil war. An 'Arab League' of Jordan, Turkey and Iraq pledge military support to Syria's rebel faction, quickly cleaning up thereafter.

The Fall riots spread to the West Bank and Gaza after approval/disapproval of Palestinian Statehood. This further increases tension between Israel and what allies it does have, while also having the same effect on its' neighbors. Several states, sensing weakness, invade/engage in skirmishes with the Israeli Defense Force.

Continued troubles in the Arabian Peninsula. Small states like Qatar, Bahrain and Kuwait are troubled, but remain intact for the most part. Yemen, Oman and the United Arab Emirates go through their own troubles. Oman and the UAE get through it beaten and bruised, yet still standing. Yemen falls, gaining a government that is heavily backed and influenced by terrorists.

Continued harsh economic/political maneuvering between Iran, Pakistan and India. All three have managed to keep it mostly between themselves, up until a few weeks into the Arab Winter/Spring (entering year 2). A new opponent (Iran) and a new sense of nuclear fear enter into this volatile cold war.


(A more thorough Scenario post could be requested via comments.)

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