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Thursday, July 7, 2011

From the Wordpress Site: A Reply to AiPolitics.Me Concerning Egypt

@AiPolitics Drawing me away from my own #redeye protest. Okay, I guess…

You want to know all about the process. That’s a little tough. Since, one, #Egypt is a Parliamentary system. I don’t know if the system of getting your name on the ballot is the same. Two, Egypt is still run in their smoky back rooms by the Military. Any contender would benefit from Military support.

Who is going to be put up? El Baradei for one. The protesters back him. POTUS/US would be willing to back him. But the Muslim Brotherhood backs him too. Who does the Muslim Brotherhood back? Hamas, Hezbollah– the list is as long as my arm, and even longer. This, to me, represents short term stability, long term problems. Give terrorists/front organizations an inch, and they’ll take a mile more. Its proven just about everywhere.

The VP Suleiman on the other. The Military is likely to throw their support to Suleiman. POTUS, not so much (2012), US they probably would support him and the new government over time, given that they (Suleiman/Military) show steps toward reform. The Military is Suleiman’s main backer. The Military has said they wont shoot in this current matter. But what if the matter changes? What if either Suleiman is elected or the Military refuses to acknowledge El Baradei’s win? Then it is the Default Choice of the Egyptian Military. Their man Suleiman is already in. Huge crackdowns on protesters. Yeah, you know how it goes.

Egypt right now seems to be the autonomous govt. (Mubarak/Suleiman), the military and El Baradei. Every government struggles to separate the actual government and military, right-and-left of center political parties, etc. Being an Egyptian right now is tough. You have these strong Nationalist Sentiments rising up in you right now. You want change, you want the rioting to stop. You want Change. Elections are around the corner. The Status Quo cannot continue, but there’s always the threat of there being no more Status Quo. What to do? What to do?

Many non-American countries trend towards Socialism. I have no doubt that the average Egyptian would vote for Change. Mohammed El Baradei would be voted as the next President. Would he get Military backing? It’s possible, but only with strong international support. With POTUS, Egypt seems to be a no-no topic. However, with this Change, I can see him talking it up; as a Victory not only for Egypt, but also for himself.

Egypt, I believe, is looking at some very difficult times ahead. I just hope and pray that no other country is pulled into the mess.

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